Geopolitical tensions

Total: (Last update: July 29, 2025)

• European Union and United States sign a deal on trade and tariffs. According to the White Hose Fact Sheet, EU goods will be subject to 15% tariffs, including on autos and auto parts, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. Sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper remain at 50%. An official notice is pending. (28/07/2025)
• European Union and United States sign a deal on trade and tariffs. According to EU's Press Release Statement, the agreement includes (1) a flat 15% tariff on EU exports (no stacking); (2) zero-for-zero tariffs on several strategic goods: aircraft and component parts, certain chemicals, certain generics, semiconductor equipment, certain agricultural products, natural resources and critical raw materials; (3) regarding steel and aluminum, tariffs will be cut and a quota system will be put in place; and (4) the EU will replace Russian gas and oil with significant purchases of US LNG, oil and nuclear fuels. An official notice is pending. (27/07/2025)
• European Union adopted Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/1564, establishing commercial rebalancing measures in response to U.S. safeguard actions. The regulation introduces ad valorem duties on a broad range of U.S.-origin goods—particularly as countermeasures to U.S. safeguard measures on steel, aluminium, automobiles, and cans, as well as reciprocal tariffs. These duties, set out in Annexes I–XIII, will be phased in between August 7, 2025, and February 7, 2026. In addition, the EU has prohibited the direct or indirect export of certain EU-origin products listed in Annex XIV to the U.S., effective from September 7, 2025. (25/07/2025)
• United Kingdom and India sign the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement. (24/07/2025)
• United States and the European Union close in on a 15% reciprocal tariffs deal, according to media reports. An official notice is pending. (24/07/2025)
• United States White House published a Fact Sheet outlining details of the United States- Japan Strategic Trade and Investment Agreement. According to the document, Japan commits $550 billion through a joint investment vehicle targeting critical U.S. sectors (energy, semiconductors, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, defense); a 15% baseline tariff is introduced on Japanese imports; U.S. gains significant market access for agriculture, energy, aerospace, and autos. (23/07/2025)
• United States White House published a Fact Sheet outlining details of the trade deal with Indonesia after its announcement on July 15. Reciprocal tariffs are set at 19%. Indonesia will eliminate tariffs on over 99% of U.S. exports, remove key non-tariff barriers across sectors, liberalize digital trade, and lift export restrictions on critical minerals. (22/07/2025)
• United States announced reciprocal tariffs for the Philippines (19%). An official notice is pending. (22/07/2025)
• United States terminates the 2019 Suspension Agreement on Mexican fresh tomato imports and issues an antidumping duty order. Effective immediately, U.S. Customs and Border Protection will suspend liquidation of all covered tomato imports from Mexico and collect cash deposits at final dumping margins—ranging from 3.91% to 30.48%, with an “all-others” rate of 17.09%. (15/07/2025)
• United States initiated Section 301 investigations of Brazil's unfair trade practices. (15/07/2025)
• United States launched Section 232 national security investigations into imports of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and their parts and components. (15/07/2025)
• Malaysia announced permit requirements for export, transshipment, and transit of high-performance artificial intelligence chips of U.S. origin. (14/07/2025)
• European Union extended its suspension of countermeasures to U.S. tariffs, which was supposed to expire on July 14, until early August. (13/07/2025).
• United States announced reciprocal tariffs for the EU (30%) and Mexico (30%). An official notice is still pending. (12/07/2025)
• United States announced reciprocal tariffs for Brazil (50%) and Canada (35%). The countries that would not receive tariff letters could expect blanket tariffs of 15-20%. An official notice is still pending. (11/07/2025)
• United States issued a second round of letters for reciprocal tariffs to 7 countries: Algeria, Brunei, Iraq, Libya, Moldova, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka.  An official notice is still pending. (09/07/2025)
• China included 8 entities of Chinese Taipei to its Export Control List. (09/07/2025)
• United States announced copper and pharmaceuticals tariffs are expected shortly. An official notice is still pending. (08/07/2025)
• China announced final ruling on the anti-dumping investigation of import-related brandy originating in the European Union. (07/07/2025)
• United States issued a list of new reciprocal tariffs for 14 countries, to take effect on 1 August 2025. The following rates will apply: Japan (25%), Republic of Korea (25%), South Africa (30%), Kazakhstan (25%), Laos (40%), Malaysia (25%), Myanmar (40%), Tunisia (25%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (30%), Indonesia (32%), Bangladesh (35%), Serbia (35%), Cambodia (36%), and Thailand (36%). For all other trading partners, the existing 10% reciprocal tariff is extended from the 9 July deadline to 1 August 2025. The bespoke rate suspension for China, Hong Kong, and Macau is extended separately until 12 August 2025. (07/07/2025)
• United States to end de minimis exemption (USD 800 threshold) from 1 July 2027 under the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” (07/07/2025)
• United States and Viet Nam agreed on a tariff deal: Viet Nam to allow duty-free U.S. imports; U.S. to impose 20% tariffs on Vietnamese goods and 40% on transshipped goods. An official notice is still pending. (02/07/2025)
• United States- United Kingdom Economic Prosperity Deal establishes: (1) TRQ for 100,000 UK-origin vehicles at 10% duty (65,205 in 2025); (2) 10% duty on eligible UK parts (vs. 25% MFN); and (3) removal of tariffs on UK civil aircraft/parts. (30/06/2025)
• Canada introduced TRQs for non-FTA steel imports, capped at 2.6M tonnes. Exceeding volumes face 50% surtax. The TRQs apply to five product categories included in Annex I: flat, long, pipe and tube, semi-finished, and stainless steel; review in 30 days. (27/06/2025)
• Canada to adjust steel and aluminum countermeasures from 21 July, pending progress with U.S. talks. (19/06/2025)
• Chinese Taipei updated export control list to include 601 entities linked to arms development, incl. Huawei and SMIC. (15/06/2025)  
• United States extended 50% tariffs (Proclamation 10896) to include white goods and kitchen appliances from 23 June. (13/06/2025)
• China announced zero tariffs for all 53 African partner countries (excl. Eswatini). (11/06/2025)
• United States court hearing on IEEPA tariffs set for 31 July; duties remain in force. (11/06/2025)

Russian invasion of Ukraine 

Total: (Last update: July 25, 2025)

• European Union adopts 18^th package of trade sanctions against Russia including refined petroleum oil products ban via third countries, lowered price cap for Russian seaborne crude oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel, and expanded export ban list with high-technology items such as computer numerical control (CNC) machines and constituent chemicals for propellants. (18/07/2025)
• United Kingdom introduced a new trade sanctions package against Russia including business software restrictions, technology controls and additional export and import prohibitions. (24/04/2025)
• Belarus implements an export prohibition of 253 foreign-made product categories, including household appliances, vehicles, clothing and medical clothing. (24/03/2025)
• European Union adopts 16th package of sanctions against Russia, including an import quota on primary aluminium. (25/02/2025)
• Japan updates export ban to 335 industrial products that contribute to strengthening the industrial base of Russia (23/01/2025